What Today’s Market is Telling Us About Home Pricing in Sun City Lincoln Hills

We’ve all felt the shift. The market isn’t moving quite as fast, buyers are being more selective, and some homes are sitting longer than they used to. So how do you price a home right in today’s environment?

Recently, we were inspired by a post from Ryan Lundquist, a respected Sacramento appraiser and the voice behind the Sacramento Appraisal Blog. If you’re not familiar with Ryan, he’s one of the most followed appraisal professionals in California—known for his transparency, data-driven insights, and no-nonsense approach to real estate trends. We follow him closely, and his June 2025 blog post on pricing in a softening market struck a chord.

While Sun City Lincoln Hills doesn’t always follow the greater Sacramento market exactly, the themes Ryan discussed absolutely apply here. Let’s break them down with some local context that buyers and sellers in our 55+ community should understand.

1. Sold Prices Reflect the Past

When you see a sale that just closed, it’s tempting to think it reflects today’s market value. But in reality, that sale likely went into contract 30–45 days ago—meaning the pricing decision was made even earlier.

Local insight: We’re seeing homes in Sun City Lincoln Hills take longer to sell (average of 17 days on market, up from 14 last year), and values have softened slightly—down about 8–9% year-over-year. Pricing based on older comps could easily miss where buyers are today.

2. Look at Pending Sales—That’s Where the Market Is Right Now

Pending sales give us a real-time look at buyer activity. In the broader region, over 34% of pendings required a price drop before going into contract. We’re seeing a similar pattern locally, where about 10–15% of homes per month adjust their prices.

Local insight: Don’t just look at what sold—ask what’s under contract right now. That’s what buyers are willing to pay today.

3. Don’t Benchmark Against Overpriced Listings

Some listings simply miss the mark and sit. That’s not the comp you want to chase.

Local insight: While we’re seeing a rise in inventory (up to approximately 95 homes active in the community [includes pending listings under contract; about 62 are actively available on the MLS]), the majority of homes still sell close to list price—with a median price reduction of just 1% when they do. Sellers who price correctly from the beginning are far more likely to avoid sitting on the market or reducing later.

4. Price Reductions Happen, But They’re Modest

In Sun City Lincoln Hills, about 10–15% of listings reduce price each month. But those drops aren’t drastic—usually around 1%.

Local insight: It’s not about slashing prices—it’s about staying nimble. If the home isn’t getting interest within the first 10–14 days, it’s better to adjust early than chase the market downward.

5. Most Homes Sell Close to List Price—But Not All

According to Redfin, the sale-to-list price ratio in Sun City Lincoln Hills is 99.8%, and about 34% of homes are still selling above list.

Local insight: Buyers—don’t assume every home is up for negotiation. If it’s a well-presented, desirable home, you may still need to write a strong offer. Sellers—know that the right home, priced and presented well, can still command top dollar.

Why It Matters

The market is shifting—but not crashing. What we’re seeing is more balance. There’s still strong demand for homes in Sun City Lincoln Hills, but buyers are taking more time, comparing options, and responding to price and presentation more critically.

Sellers: Strategic pricing is everything. List too high, and you risk falling behind quickly.

Buyers: There’s opportunity here—but the best homes still move fast. Know your budget and act decisively when the right one comes up.

Who We Are and How We Can Help

I’m Erik Nelson, team lead of The McGrail Team with HomeSmart ICARE Realty. We specialize in Sun City Lincoln Hills, where our team has deep roots and decades of combined experience helping clients buy and sell in this incredible 55+ community. 

We know the floorplans, the market trends, and what buyers are looking for. We offer honest, data-backed pricing guidance—not guesswork. Every listing we take on gets professional photos, video walkthroughs, 3D tours, and maximum exposure on sites like Zillow and Homes.com.

As Homes.com Member Agents, our listings receive enhanced placement and our buyers benefit from smarter tools and earlier access to new inventory—giving you a real edge in this market.

We’re also Accredited Buyer’s Agents, Luxury Specialists, and Seniors Real Estate Specialists® (SRES). That means we’re fully equipped to serve clients at every stage—from first-time retirement buyers to those navigating complex estate sales or downsizing transitions.

Let’s talk. Whether you’re thinking of selling or buying, we’re here to help you make informed, confident decisions.

Call or text us at (916) 228-7353

Visit our website at mcgrailteam.com to search homes or request a free market review.

Love where you live—and work with a team that knows how to guide you through the market, every step of the way.